Planning a golf challenge? This Hole-in-One Challenge Revenue and Prize Calculator is the ultimate tool for estimating your event’s financials. Whether you’re organizing a floating green golf challenge or a classic hole-in-one competition, this calculator helps you project top-line revenue, estimate prize payouts, share revenue, and assess the likelihood of a winner based on skill level.
Hole-in-One Challenge Calculator
Calculate revenue projections and prize payouts for your hole-in-one challenge event
Select the expected skill level and frequency of hole-in-one occurrence
Maximum 1,000 balls
Share a percentage of revenue after prize payouts
Enter the percentage to share with your partner
Results
Annual Top-Line Revenue
$0
Monthly Top-Line Revenue
$0
Prize Payouts Per Year
0
Projected Prize Payouts ($)
$0
Revenue Split ($)
$0
Net Revenue ($)
$0
Profit Margin
0%
Win Probability per Customer
0%
How does the Hole in One Challenge Calculator Work?
This calculator helps golf event organizers estimate revenue and potential prize payouts for hole-in-one challenges. I was inspired to build this tool after watching this business idea video from Chris Koerner of The Koerner Office.
I love business idea almost anyone could pull off regardless of startup funds assuming you don’t mind hustling and getting really hands on in the early days. I also like the opportunity to create win-win situations between you and other business owners or charities.
Let’s break down how it works and explain the math behind each calculation. But I encourage you to play around with the numbers in this tool and explore how different pricing, number of customers, and skill level can all impact your bottom line.
Individual Shot Probability
The calculator starts with established odds for different skill levels on a par 3 hole at about 111 yards:
- Pro Golfers: 1 in 5,000 shots (0.02%)
- Good Golfers: 1 in 10,000 shots (0.01%)
- Amateur Golfers: 1 in 12,000 shots (0.0083%)
- Casual Golfers: 1 in 20,000 shots (0.005%)
- Terrible Golfers: 1 in 25,000 shots (0.004%)
Multiple Shots Probability
When a customer gets multiple balls, their chance of success increases. By default, the each customer gets 20 balls based on the Koerner’s video. The calculator uses probability theory to determine the likelihood of at least one success in multiple attempts:
P(at least one success) = 1 - P(no successes)
P(no successes) = (1 - P(single shot success))^number of balls
For example, an amateur golfer with 20 balls:
- Single shot probability = 1/12000 = 0.000083333
- Probability of no successes = (1 – 0.000083333)^20 = 0.998333^20
- Probability of at least one success = 1 – 0.998333^20 ≈ 0.00166 or 0.166%
Annual Top-Line Revenue
Monthly Revenue = Monthly Customers × Price per Game
Annual Revenue = Monthly Revenue × 12For example, with 1,000 monthly customers paying $20 each:
- Monthly Revenue = 1,000 × $20 = $20,000
- Annual Revenue = $20,000 × 12 = $240,000
Expected Prize Payouts
The calculator determines expected prize payouts by multiplying: Annual Prize Payouts = Annual Customers × Success Probability × Prize Amount
Net Revenue Calculations
This is Revenue After Prize Payouts: Net Revenue = Annual Revenue - Expected Prize Payouts
Revenue Split (if enabled): If you’re sharing revenue with a partner or charity, the split is calculated after prize payouts:
Split Amount = (Annual Revenue - Prize Payouts) × Split PercentageHow this Business Works
Things to consider with Hole in One Business Challenges
Running a hole-in-one challenge business is all about playing the odds, and while the numbers are ultimately in your favor, you need to be prepared for unpredictable days. The odds say that only 1 in 12,000 shots will be a hole-in-one, but the reality is, luck can run hot. Sometimes multiple players will beat the odds in a short span of time.
Think about it like a blackjack table at a casino. If you’ve ever spoke with an experienced dealer, they’ll tell you that some days, a table just isn’t profitable for the house. Players win big, and the casino takes a hit, even though they know that in the long run, the house always wins.
This all makes sense on paper of course, but as a small business owner, seeing $40,000 in prize payouts go out over one weekend of a golf challenge can test your determination. One way these businesses reduce financial risk is by taking out insurance policies when a customer gets a hole in one. This can help smooth out the payouts in case you go on an unexpected losing streak.
The key takeaway? To succeed in this business, you need significant cash reserves and be mentally prepared for short-term ups and downs. This is what will keep you afloat during those “crazy days” when the odds seem to forget they’re supposed to be in your favor. If you want to weather the storm and come out strong, make sure you have the funds ready to pay out those big prizes because the reality is, no matter how good the odds, crazy things will happen.
We're about to see this business everywhere.
— Chris Koerner (@mhp_guy) November 3, 2024
Watch me reverse engineer how much money it makes per year and how you could copy it, in 5 tweets below: pic.twitter.com/mYHHZbSf7H
Creating Win-Win Situations
If you’re thinking about turning the hole-in-one challenge into a business, there’s more to it than just showing up with a floating green, some golf balls, and collecting cash. You’ll need to create a win-win situation for the business owners or charities you partner with. This means thinking about how to incentivize them to host your event. Because the reality is no business owner is going to let you setup shop just for fun.
As shown in the calculator, the simplest way to get your foot in the doors is offering a revenue split, which gives the host a direct stake in the success of the event. This also makes for an easy sale to a business owner.
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Hi [Business Owner Name],
I’d love to bring an exciting event to your business—a Hole-in-One Golf Challenge with a $10,000 prize for winners. It’s a unique attraction that draws in golfers and thrill-seekers alike.
We can either do a revenue split or I can offer a flat fee of $2,000 for hosting the week long event.
Let me know if you are interested and we can discuss the details.
###
Alternatively, you could offer a flat fee to run the competition for a set period, like a week, which might be appealing to venues who want guaranteed income.
Either way, you’ll need to account for this overhead in your financial calculations. Whether it’s a percentage of revenue or a flat payment, make sure those costs are part of your overall plan so you can maintain profitability.
It will also be essential to track the win rate of participants over time. This data will help you refine your projections and adjust your pricing or prize payouts for future events, in addition to giving you more of a business advantage. The more you know about the actual outcomes, the more precise your business calculations will become, and the better you can manage risk.
Run the numbers on a Hole in One Golf Challenge.
Another idea to consider is experimenting with the challenge itself. Making the hole a longer distance or adding other challenging elements can decrease the likelihood of someone hitting a hole-in-one. In return, you could offer better payouts for those who succeed, making it an even bigger draw for participants. This kind of balancing act (adjusting difficulty versus prize potential) can help you attract players while managing the overall prize payout risk.
In short, success in this business isn’t just about the math: it’s about building the right partnerships, managing risk with creativity, and making sure that everyone walks away from the experience feeling like a winner.
Resources:
How to Run a Hole in One Challenge: Chris Koerner shares more details about running this type of business including ideas on the types of businesses you could partner with, infrastructure and equipment needed, and marketing strategies.
The Hole in One: Stats, Odds and More: Learn more about the data behind emphasize the incredible rarity and the allure of achieving a hole-in-one. This article is extremely helpful coming up with nuanced estimates for your challenge business.
Some key insights: Odds of making two holes-in-one in the same round: 67 million to Odds of a Hole-in-one. Brian Harman achieved this extremely rare feat during the 2015 Barclays. A surprising fact: 60% of all holes-in-one are made by players aged 50 and over.
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Market Demand Calculator: Does your product or service have real demand in the market? This calculator helps you evaluate your idea across 12 key factors using a weighted scoring system, giving you a clear picture of its market potential.
About the Author: Brett Lindenberg
